A Perfect Storm (s)
10-2-12,9,0
First along came storm Eunice, the Metoffice forecast doom, and as a poultry farmer with twelve mobile hen houses, the alarm bells sounded big time. We battened down the hatches, the storm pushed through pretty quickly and ripped the roofs off two of our sheds depositing it across the farm. Whilst this was serious and costly, we had feared it was going to be far worse, no persons or hens were harmed and no sheds were lost, so now the clear up and repairs begin ……
And then along comes the next storm, the Perfect Storm! Again rapid and severe but this time, entirely manmade. Brexit, Covid, global pressures were already pushing up costs at the beginning of the year, and now storm Ukraine is upon us and looking considerably more destructive and far reaching, and for organic food producers like us, the perfect storm. According to the government statistics the UK is approx. 55% self sufficient in food, however this ignores our reliance on imported ingredients ie., fertiliser to grow (non organic) crops, fuel for our machinery, grain etc., to make our food or feed our animals etc.. The latter is a serious issue for our business and many many others like us, our lovely organic feed that our hens enjoy contains approx. 60% grain plus other ingredients like sunflowers etc.. It transpires that over 30% (worse for non organic) of the UKs organic corn comes from the Ukraine directly and more from Russia and other east block countries. So rather obviously this has thrown the feed industry into a panic and prices are rocketing (for not just eggs, but dairy, pork, chicken etc..). So why is this a ‘perfect storm’
- Feed prices are rocketing and extremely unstable, already having increase 15% this year prior to the Ukraine crisis. The cost of the feed is by far the largest variable of the cost of a dozen eggs. The direct issue.
- Avian flu restrictions (lockdown) are the longest for many years and not looking to come to an end any day soon. Whilst we have got better at it and our hens are relatively happy in lockdown (but spring is the crucial time) whilst they are shut in they lay us a few less eggs and eat much more feed out of boredom and without the part of their diet they would normally get from ranging around outdoors.
- The fuel crisis is pushing up the cost of all the other variables such as delivery, packaging etc.
- The whole affect on the cost of living for all of us means that the majority of people (customers) are feeling poorer and this is only likely to get worse, so people will understandably be looking to make reductions to their living costs and historically organic food may become one of those dilemmas. So there will become a serious tipping point where the cost of our eggs will have to rise, but possibly above an affordable level. The perfect storm.
We are extremely lucky to have a very loyal and supportive group of customers and we really appreciate your support and we really hope you can understand the hideous situation we find ourselves in and how this is utterly out of our control in a global crisis, and are able to find a way to continue to buy our lovely eggs. I had this conversation with one customer this week who travels along way to buy our eggs and he said ‘my priorities are different to many, I work to firstly put a good roof over my families head and then secondly put good food on the table, everything else such as a flashy car comes after’. He makes a fair point, (which is partly why we have two 21 year old cars and a collection of 1980s machinery), we have become too reliant on a readily available supply of cheap food, will it take a global crisis caused by a hideous war to wake us up to this fact?
On a more positive note, our youngest daughter has been really busy raising money for the Ukraine people and has received amazing support. Please take the time to click on the below links to see what she has been up to. We are so proud!
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